By Bob Kobek, President, Mobius VP, ECAC Board Member

Produced for the Enterprise Communications Advocacy Coalition (ECAC)

As a political wonk those are the most common questions I am asked, have been asked about the election of November 5, 2024. I often feel like I am a therapist.

As a self-avowed geek, I am really intrigued by the social implications of this election year. Generally, it is the policy and politics that are the allure for me, but this is different. There is vitriol everywhere. Let’s take a quick trip down the memory isle. 

And there are some who have opined this is all about Trump – either you are for him or against him. 

We have an incumbent POTUS whose significant accomplishments are largely ignored for several reasons; he’s old, he is a Democrat, old news, accusations of all types. When you consider his legislative wins early in his term with a slim majority in the Senate and slim minority in the House, it really is a testament not to leadership in the truest definition of the word, but a very skillful knowledge of the rules of the road in both houses. For example, Kamala Harris was the tie vote on a couple of those. In the words used commonly in DC, ‘he snaked em!’ Make no mistake, they, the Republicans have not been caught flat footed since.

Then there is a former POTUS who has been running continuously since 2012, non-stop, with a term in office in between and we find that, after all of this, he is tied with a VEEP that has been on the ticket for only a few months (to be fair, she did run for President in 2020).  And Donald Trump knows how to play the media – all of it, like a violin. The skill he demonstrates in commanding attention is to be admired and envied. And the fact that he is the one most responsible for tanking an immigration bill fashioned by the most conservative member of the US Senate but maintaining the lead on that issue is proof of his command of that issue and how to play it. 

The phenom known as the ‘enthusiasm gap’ has completely flipped. DJT has been at 46% (+/- 1%) in the polls forever while Harris is at 46% (=/- 1%) for a few months. It is tied. And there are not many undecideds out there. The immediate momentum Kamala Harris picked up immediately before, during and after the DNC has not slowed and is showing signs of actually gaining in speed. 

There are some interesting variables like races in the Senate and House. Conventional thinking has them being flipped with the Republicans picking up the Senate (Wyoming and West Virginia flipping) and the Democrats picking up the house, a myriad of seats moving.

Then the wild card – reproductive rights: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York and South Dakota all have abortion initiatives on their ballot. As has been demonstrated every time that shows up the right to lifers have lost and lost big and this issue brings voters out, in droves.  

By the way, do yourself a favor – verify, verify, verify. There is an amazing amount of stupid information swirling around. i.e. People eating pets? 

Presidential prediction – I have none. This will be decided by voter turnout. 

The ECAC is hosting a November Webinar Unraveling Fraud in Lead Generation – Do You Really Have Consent? on Thursday, November 14 at 2:00 PM ET. Learn how to build a robust telemarking data flow, what lead transparency means, and how cutting-edge technology and services can protect your business from fraudulent leads and ensure true consent. 

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